A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
